I am often asked “How’s the real estate market?” That’s a
complicated answer because it really depends upon the price range and what area
or neighborhood someone is inquiring about. And it depends upon property type –
single-family homes track differently than condos, which track differently than
vacant land. Today we’re just going to look at what’s happening to
single-family home prices. If you want to know what’s going on with
condos/townhouses or vacant land, please go the Market Trends tab on my website,
SunValleySheila.com. Here I've included lots of charts depicting median prices, average
prices, closed sales, pending sales, inventory levels, and price-per-square-foot
analysis. The data is based upon 12-month rolling averages and the charts
are updated monthly, so check back. If you need other information (for example,
Sold Saturation Rates), please just call or email me.
I generally like to look at median prices because that’s the
number which indicates the “trend” of a market. The median price–that price
smack dab in the middle–isn’t as influenced by a very high price or a very low
price as average prices are.
Anecdotally I have been saying that the low-end of the market
and the high-end of the market are the most active, and the two charts below
support this theory. These charts show what
median prices are doing in the single-family home market across various price
ranges for our entire MLS. These charts are a three-year history comparing
October 2014 to October 2015 to October 2016. As suspected, the bottom segment
of the market is on fire, with median prices under $300,000 up 17.5%. Median
prices for homes selling over $2,000,000 are up a whopping 28.8%, from $2,600,000
in October 2015 to $3,350,000 this year.
Price Range: Zero to $999,000
Price Range: $1,000,000 to The Top of the Market
What’s happening to median prices of single-family homes in the various areas of our MLS? Let's look at January 1 thru November 17, 2016?
Ketchum – UP 3% from $975,000 to $1,005,000 (Pending sales are UP 33% so this number could change as we slide out of 2016.)
North Ketchum – DOWN 8% from $1,125,000 to $1,030,325
Warm Springs – UP 67% from $830,000 to $1,387,500 (Pending sales are up 72%!!!!)
Elkhorn – DOWN 37% from $1,445,000 to $901,500 (Pending Sales are UP 26%.)
Sun Valley – DOWN 4% from $1,310,000 to $1,250,000
Mid-Valley - UP 25% from $850,000 to $1,067,500
Hailey – UP 3% from $320,000 to $332,500
Bellevue – DOWN 3% from $250,000 to $242,000 (Pending sales are up 21%.)
South Blaine County – DOWN 36% from $220,000 to $140,000
The areas with declining prices are disconcerting and I am hopeful that the increased pending sales will conclude in a decent 2016.