What are current Sun Valley real estate prices in relation to prices before The Great Recession?
This Blog Post could also be called "Why low ball offers don't come together in the current Sun Valley real estate market!"
You can try to low-ball a seller in this market, but be prepared for an aggressive counteroffer or no response at all! Here's why.
PRICE TRENDS FOR SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES IN THE ENTIRE SUN VALLEY MLS
Let's look at the progression of the 12-month rolling average trends of the median price of a single-family home in the entire Sun Valley MLSsince January 2008.
These median prices reflect all areas of our Sun Valley MLS, from South of Bellevue, up to Hailey, South of Ketchum, Warm Springs, Elkhorn and Sun Valley, North of Ketchum, and all areas in between. In other words, all of Blaine County, Idaho.
The values may seem low, but please know that the statistics include summer homes on leasehold property (typically much lower in price) and starter homes in Hailey, Bellevue and south of Bellevue.
Each data point on these charts represents 12-month rolling average trends.
The time to low-ball a seller who has a realistic price on their property is over!
The Great Recession started in December of 2017.
The median price of a home in the Sun Valley area was $495,000 in January 2008.
The low point was in October 2016, when the median price was $217,750. Obviously that’s when the best deals happened! My real estate world involved short sales and foreclosures during this period. I'm glad those days are over.
Prices peaked in December 2017, when the median price as $536,500.
As of August 31, 2018, the median price was $519,000. up 8.7% over the same period last year.
Review the chart below and hover your mouse over the charts to see each data point. The Sun Valley single-family home market is now fully recovered!
The "Resort Market" of the Sun Valley MLS has seen gains in the past 3 years
By "Resort Market" I mean the areas closest to Bald Mountain and the core of Ketchum, specifically all of Ketchum, Warm Springs, Elkhorn and Sun Valley.
January 2013 - Median Price of a Single-Family Home was $775,000.
August 2016 - Median Price of a Single-Family Home was $1,062,500.
August 2017 - Median Price of a Single-Family Home was $1,325,000, up 24.7% over the previous year.
August 2018 - Median Price of a Single-Family Home was $1,447,500, up 9.2% over the same time last year.
THE SUN VALLEY CONDO & TOWNHOUSE MARKET TRENDS FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS
See the chart below for the 12-month rolling averages of the median price of condos and townhouses in the entire Sun Valley area. Again, this includes all condo and townhouse sales in all of Blaine County, including the lowest priced areas of our MLS.
The median price of a townhouse or condo in January 2008 was $529,000.
The median price in July 2012 was the low point at $188,000.
The median price in August 2017 was $335,000, up 11.7% over the previous year.
The median price in August 2018 was $345,000, up 3% over the previous year.
Always the optimist, I am seeing a pattern in this upward trend with the usual seasonal adjustments. Will it continue? We shall see.
Perhaps the condo and townhouse markets have been slower to recover due to the abundance of new inventory when the recession hit, including Chilali, Elkhorn Springs, and Olympic Terrace. These three projects alone accounted for a high number of distressed sales.
Can I predict the future of Sun Valley real estate?
No, I can't predict the future of Sun Valley real estate. If I could I'd be on a new really expensive Italian bike somewhere in the Mediterranean.
But, based upon the increase in pending/under contract deals and solid sold trends, I suspect that the prices for condos and townhouses in Sun Valley will continue to trend up.
A further indicator would be the dwindling supply of condo and townhouse inventory, down 32.3% this August over last August in the resort market; and down 21.3% across the entire MLS.
Charts to substantiate these statistics are towards the bottom.
Will there be a shift in the market?
I am continually asked when a shift in the market is going to happen. Again, if I know that I'd be on a new bike in Italy, blah, blah, blah.
Here's what I do know.
Gary Keller, who started Keller Williams, and who is a brainiac in the world of real estate economics has been calling for a shift in the market for some time, maybe as long as two years.
Keller Williams tracks real estate numbers in every market where we have an office, and since we are the largest franchise in the country, that's a lot of offices and therefore, a lot of reliable statistics.
We are getting reports that the markets on the west coast are softening. For instance, Seattle's days on market has increased, and their inventory levels have increased, too. If that continues, Seattle will see a dip in prices.
Historically, the Sun Valley market has lagged behind the coastal markets, sometimes for as long as a full year.
What do we know about change in a real estate market?
Change happens gradually, and then suddenly.
That my friends is why it's so hard to predict the future. You're in the future before you know it!
Review the charts below for all the details of our market regarding inventory levels, pending sales and sold deals.
PENDING Sales in Blaine County and the Sun Valley "Resort Area" ARE UP for both Single-Family Homes and Condo/Townhouses
Closed Sales in Blaine County and the Sun Valley "Resort Area" ARE UP for both Single-Family Homes and Condos/Townhouses
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY IS dwindling
The Red Report from Keller Williams International for September 2018. Here's what is happening nationally.