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IN THE WEEDS | Jan-April 2021 over Jan-April 2020

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 IN THE WEEDS with Sun Valley Real Estate | Comparing Jan-April 2021 over Jan-April 2020

Every month I update my Blog with the latest Sun Valley real estate statistics. Usually I compare the current past twelve months to the previous twelve months. However, because the Sun Valley real estate market did not lose momentum this winter, I wanted to compare the first four months of 2021 with the same period of 2020. My anecdotal observation was correct - the Sun Valley real market continues to be HOT! 

Can we predict the future by looking at these numbers? 

Nope, we can't predict the future because this is just a small snapshot in time and maybe one person in a million has a crystal ball. But what we can glean from these numbers is this: 

  • Across all property types, inventory was down on April 30, 2021 by 36% over last year. The biggest culprits were single-family homes, which had decreased inventory by 34%; and townhouses, which had 55% less inventory in the first four months of 2021 than the same period of 2020. Ouch! No wonder properties are receiving multiple offers with most offers at or over asking price! In fact, condos sold at 101% of asking price; single-family homes sold at 100% of asking price; and townhouses also sold at 100% of asking price. For the time being, those looking for a deal may want to consider another strategy! 
  • The number of single-family homes under contract as of April 30, 2021 was up 71% over April 30, 2020. Pending deals for condos are up 92%, and townhouses are up 57%. Pending deals for vacant land are up a whopping 375%, moving from 37 pending deals in 2020 to 176 pending deals in 2021. Yes, I did double-check these numbers because they are truly hard to believe, aren't they? 
  • Of course, all this demand is great for sellers as the simple law of supply and demand increases prices. The median price of a single-family home rose 27% in the first four months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, and the average price rose 47%; the median price for condos was up 130%; and the median price for residential land was up 28%. Townhouse prices hit the skids this winter with the median price down 30%. One reason for this might be that inventory levels for townhouses was down 55%, so perhaps buyers are waiting on the sidelines until more townhouses come on the market. 
  • ONE WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE might be to look at "New Listings." New listing inventory for single-family homes was up 14%, and condo listings was up 7%. Townhouse new inventory was down 52%. Anecdotally, I know that some sellers have declined to list their properties during the pandemic for fear of having people traipse through their homes. Now that more and more people are getting vaccinated, perhaps more sellers will be willing to get into the game as the weather warms.  
  • Despite the high cost of construction, the sale of vacant land continues to be very strong with Year-to-Date 2021 outpacing YTD 2020 by 427%.  And that trend should continue into the near future with pending sales up 375%. Despite these high numbers, the median price of vacant residential land across all neighborhoods in the Sun Valley MLS only rose 28%, moving from $165,650 to $212,930. 
  • THE MORAL OF THE STORY? If we don't see a serious uptick in new listings, if buyer demand continues to be strong, and if interest rates stay low, I don't see prices declining. This means if you are a buyer, be prepared to pay full price or above. And as a buyer you might be more competitive if you robbed a bank before making an offer! 
  • Your thoughts? If you have some insights I might be missing, I'd love to hear from you. My email is: SunValleySheila@gmail.com. Or call. 208.481.0450. 
  • Check back next month when I will post the latest numbers for the Sun Valley real estate market. 

 IN THE WEEDS 

Sold Market Analysis

This Year: 1/1/2021 to 4/30/2021
Last Year: 1/1/2020 to 4/30/2020

The Sun Valley Single-Family Home Market 

 

  Total Active New Listings Number Under Contract
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 27 26 -3 11 17 54 9 13 44
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 17 5 -70 3 4 33 10 3 -70
Hailey 63 61 -3 34 47 38 18 42 133
Ketchum 31 20 -35 8 8 0 4 9 125
Mackay 11 1 -90 2 0 - 1 1 0
South of
Ketchum		 90 42 -53 37 22 -40 10 25 150
North of
Ketchum		 16 11 -31 3 3 0 2 4 100
Other 20 12 -40 3 9 200 7 7 0
Stanley
Basin		 2 1 -50 0 0 0 0 0 0
South
Blaine Co		 15 14 -6 4 9 125 2 10 400
Sun Valley 19 15 -21 6 9 50 5 6 20
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 19 9 -52 5 5 0 5 5 0
Sub Type
Totals: Single Family Residence		 330 217 -34 116 133 14 73 125 71

 

 

  Number Sold Sold Volume Average Sale Price
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 8 13 62 2,877,400 7,883,400 173 359,675 606,415 68
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 8 2 -75 10,658,750 3,340,000 -68 1,332,344 1,670,000 25
Hailey 16 34 112 8,517,550 25,770,000 202 532,347 757,941 42
Ketchum 3 11 266 8,000,000 32,035,000 300 2,666,667 2,912,273 9
Mackay 1 1 0 250,000 794,000 217 250,000 794,000 217
South of
Ketchum		 9 19 111 15,215,750 43,750,000 187 1,690,639 2,302,632 36
North of
Ketchum		 2 4 100 6,869,000 30,500,000 344 3,434,500 7,625,000 122
Other 7 3 -57 3,327,700 1,270,000 -61 475,386 423,333 -10
Stanley
Basin		 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
South
Blaine Co		 4 9 125 2,065,000 7,135,000 245 516,250 792,778 53
Sun Valley 4 5 25 9,515,000 17,380,000 82 2,378,750 3,476,000 46
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 5 4 -20 8,638,000 7,652,000 -11 1,727,600 1,913,000 10
Sub Type
Totals: Single Family Residence		 67 105 56 75,934,150 177,509,400 133 1,133,346 1,690,566 49

 

 

 

  Median Sale Price Percent of List
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 354,950 492,000 38 98 98 0
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 1,245,000 1,670,000 34 95 97 1
Hailey 430,275 554,000 28 98 99 0
Ketchum 2,350,000 2,500,000 6 90 101 11
Mackay 250,000 794,000 217 84 99 18
South of
Ketchum		 1,365,000 1,655,000 21 95 97 3
North of
Ketchum		 3,434,500 7,400,000 115 93 96 3
Other 390,000 550,000 41 100 99 0
Stanley
Basin		 0 0 0 0 0 0
South
Blaine Co		 390,000 594,000 52 97 97 0
Sun Valley 2,435,000 3,025,000 24 97 104 6
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 1,925,000 1,350,000 -29 95 108 12
Sub Type
Totals: Single Family Residence		 685,000 875,000 27 95 100 5

 The Sun Valley Condo Market  

 

  Total Active New Listings Number Under Contract
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 29 26 -10 17 26 52 9 20 122
Hailey 5 14 180 3 13 333 3 7 133
Ketchum 68 41 -39 34 20 -41 14 24 71
South of
Ketchum		 2 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 -
Other 0 1 + 0 1 + 0 0 0
Sun Valley 18 16 -11 12 11 -8 6 14 133
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 26 17 -34 12 15 25 4 8 100
Sub Type
Totals: Condominium		 148 115 -22 80 86 7 38 73 92

 

 

  Number Sold Sold Volume Average Sale Price
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 10 18 80 3,892,500 14,206,100 264 389,250 789,228 102
Hailey 3 4 33 742,500 1,564,000 110 247,500 391,000 57
Ketchum 23 27 17 18,988,000 35,820,000 88 825,565 1,326,667 60
South of
Ketchum		 2 0 - 405,000 0 - 202,500 0 -
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun Valley 9 12 33 4,264,000 13,887,000 225 473,778 1,157,250 144
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 4 8 100 1,434,000 5,393,500 276 358,500 674,188 88
Sub Type
Totals: Condominium		 51 69 35 29,726,000 70,870,600 138 582,863 1,027,110 76

 

 

  Median Sale Price Percent of List
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 386,250 631,000 63 97 102 4
Hailey 250,000 365,000 46 98 101 2
Ketchum 375,000 1,275,000 240 96 99 3
South of
Ketchum		 202,500 0 -100 100 0 -
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sun Valley 365,000 1,207,500 230 98 102 3
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 236,000 549,250 132 89 102 14
Sub Type
Totals: Condominium		 358,000 825,000 130 96 101 5

 The Sun Valley Townhouse Market 

 

 

  Total Active New Listings Number Under Contract
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 0 1 + 0 1 + 0 1 +
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 5 7 40 1 4 300 1 3 200
Hailey 46 16 -65 38 13 -65 9 15 66
Ketchum 24 10 -58 13 7 -46 6 7 16
North of
Ketchum		 1 0 - 0 0 0 1 0 -
Sun Valley 0 2 + 0 2 + 0 2 +
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 11 3 -72 5 0 - 2 2 0
Sub Type
Totals: Townhouse		 87 39 -55 57 27 -52 19 30 57

 

 

  Number Sold Sold Volume Average Sale Price
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 0 1 + 0 400,000 + 0 400,000 +
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 1 5 400 1,400,000 9,255,000 561 1,400,000 1,851,000 32
Hailey 8 12 50 2,295,000 4,423,598 92 286,875 368,633 28
Ketchum 8 5 -37 12,270,675 3,800,200 -69 1,533,834 760,040 -50
North of
Ketchum		 1 0 - 749,000 0 - 749,000 0 -
Sun Valley 0 2 + 0 1,555,000 + 0 777,500 +
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 2 2 0 1,827,000 3,092,551 69 913,500 1,546,276 69
Sub Type
Totals: Townhouse		 20 27 35 18,541,675 22,526,349 21 927,084 834,309 -10

 

 

  Median Sale Price Percent of List
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 0 400,000 + 0 94 +
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 1,400,000 1,995,000 42 97 100 3
Hailey 267,500 399,056 49 97 101 4
Ketchum 1,130,000 610,000 -46 97 102 4
North of
Ketchum		 749,000 0 -100 99 0 -
Sun Valley 0 777,500 + 0 102 +
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 913,500 1,546,276 69 98 98 0
Sub Type
Totals: Townhouse		 715,500 494,700 -30 98 100 2

 The Sun Valley Residential Land Market 

 

 

  Total Active New Listings Number Under Contract
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 21 42 100 8 19 137 1 27 2600
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 21 6 -71 3 3 0 1 3 200
Hailey 155 73 -52 34 22 -35 14 44 214
Ketchum 9 5 -44 1 1 0 0 4 +
Mackay 12 8 -33 3 5 66 0 5 +
South of
Ketchum		 92 48 -47 23 15 -34 5 28 460
North of
Ketchum		 7 6 -14 2 2 0 0 2 +
Other 101 54 -46 8 21 162 7 28 300
South
Blaine Co		 46 46 0 14 16 14 2 23 1050
Stanley
Basin		 2 0 - 0 0 0 1 0 -
Sun Valley 31 8 -74 4 2 -50 5 6 20
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 14 11 -21 0 2 + 1 6 500
Sub Type
Totals: Residential Land		 511 307 -39 100 108 8 37 176 375

 

 

  Number Sold Sold Volume Average Sale Price
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 1 39 3800 128,000 6,848,500 5250 128,000 175,603 37
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 1 8 700 300,000 4,415,000 1371 300,000 551,875 83
Hailey 13 51 292 2,019,850 11,578,400 473 155,373 227,027 46
Ketchum 0 4 + 0 7,530,000 + 0 1,882,500 +
Mackay 0 4 + 0 657,000 + 0 164,250 +
South of
Ketchum		 7 30 328 6,057,500 12,416,500 104 865,357 413,883 -52
North of
Ketchum		 1 0 - 490,000 0 - 490,000 0 -
Other 6 21 250 351,000 2,806,900 699 58,500 133,662 128
South
Blaine Co		 1 20 1900 33,500 4,369,598 12943 33,500 218,480 552
Stanley
Basin		 1 0 - 205,000 0 - 205,000 0 -
Sun Valley 4 8 100 7,345,000 10,724,000 46 1,836,250 1,340,500 -26
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 1 5 400 785,000 3,735,000 375 785,000 747,000 -4
Sub Type
Totals: Residential Land		 36 190 427 17,714,850 65,080,898 267 492,079 342,531 -30

 

 

  Median Sale Price Percent of List
Area Last Year This Year PCT Last Year This Year PCT
Bellevue 128,000 107,500 -16 95 97 2
Elkhorn in
Sun Valley		 300,000 475,000 58 100 96 -3
Hailey 150,000 210,000 40 92 98 6
Ketchum 0 1,617,500 + 0 95 +
Mackay 0 132,500 + 0 98 +
South of
Ketchum		 380,000 397,500 4 89 99 11
North of
Ketchum		 490,000 0 -100 99 0 -
Other 58,000 63,500 9 89 97 8
South
Blaine Co		 33,500 107,000 219 100 96 -4
Stanley
Basin		 205,000 0 -100 86 0 -
Sun Valley 1,700,000 874,500 -48 99 97 -2
Warm
Springs in Ketchum		 785,000 600,000 -23 92 93 0
Sub Type
Totals: Residential Land		 165,650 212,930 28 94 97 3

Information is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. © 2021 MLS and FBS. Prepared by Sheila Liermann, Associate Broker, RSPS, GRI,SFR on Tuesday, May 04, 2021 4:47 PM.   

Check back each month for updated Sun Valley real estate statistics.  

Respectfully Blogged, 

SHEILA LIERMANN

208.481.0450 

SunValleySheila@gmail.com

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