IN THE WEEDS with Sun Valley Real Estate | Comparing Jan-April 2021 over Jan-April 2020
Every month I update my Blog with the latest Sun Valley real estate statistics. Usually I compare the current past twelve months to the previous twelve months. However, because the Sun Valley real estate market did not lose momentum this winter, I wanted to compare the first four months of 2021 with the same period of 2020. My anecdotal observation was correct - the Sun Valley real market continues to be HOT!
Can we predict the future by looking at these numbers?
Nope, we can't predict the future because this is just a small snapshot in time and maybe one person in a million has a crystal ball. But what we can glean from these numbers is this:
Across all property types, inventory was down on April 30, 2021 by 36% over last year. The biggest culprits were single-family homes, which had decreased inventory by 34%; and townhouses, which had 55% less inventory in the first four months of 2021 than the same period of 2020. Ouch! No wonder properties are receiving multiple offers with most offers at or over asking price! In fact, condos sold at 101% of asking price; single-family homes sold at 100% of asking price; and townhouses also sold at 100% of asking price. For the time being, those looking for a deal may want to consider another strategy!
The number of single-family homes under contract as of April 30, 2021 was up 71% over April 30, 2020. Pending deals for condos are up 92%, and townhouses are up 57%. Pending deals for vacant land are up a whopping 375%, moving from 37 pending deals in 2020 to 176 pending deals in 2021. Yes, I did double-check these numbers because they are truly hard to believe, aren't they?
Of course, all this demand is great for sellers as the simple law of supply and demand increases prices. The median price of a single-family home rose 27% in the first four months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, and the average price rose 47%; the median price for condos was up 130%; and the median price for residential land was up 28%. Townhouse prices hit the skids this winter with the median price down 30%. One reason for this might be that inventory levels for townhouses was down 55%, so perhaps buyers are waiting on the sidelines until more townhouses come on the market.
ONE WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE might be to look at "New Listings." New listing inventory for single-family homes was up 14%, and condo listings was up 7%. Townhouse new inventory was down 52%. Anecdotally, I know that some sellers have declined to list their properties during the pandemic for fear of having people traipse through their homes. Now that more and more people are getting vaccinated, perhaps more sellers will be willing to get into the game as the weather warms.
Despite the high cost of construction, the sale of vacant land continues to be very strong with Year-to-Date 2021 outpacing YTD 2020 by 427%. And that trend should continue into the near future with pending sales up 375%. Despite these high numbers, the median price of vacant residential land across all neighborhoods in the Sun Valley MLS only rose 28%, moving from $165,650 to $212,930.
THE MORAL OF THE STORY? If we don't see a serious uptick in new listings, if buyer demand continues to be strong, and if interest rates stay low, I don't see prices declining. This means if you are a buyer, be prepared to pay full price or above. And as a buyer you might be more competitive if you robbed a bank before making an offer!
Your thoughts? If you have some insights I might be missing, I'd love to hear from you. My email is: SunValleySheila@gmail.com. Or call. 208.481.0450.
Check back next month when I will post the latest numbers for the Sun Valley real estate market.