In the Weeds | YTD September 2021 over YTD 2020

IN THE WEEDS with Sun Valley Real Estate | Comparing Jan-Sept 2021 over Jan-Sept 2020

Every month I update my Blog with the latest Sun Valley real estate statistics. Usually I compare the current past twelve months to the previous twelve months. However, because the Sun Valley real estate market has not lost momentum this year, with this blog post I want to compare a tighter timeframe so let's look at the first nine months of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020.  

My hope is that these statistics will help you when deciding to buy, sell, or invest in Sun Valley real estate. Here are some stand-out statistics.  For more detailed analysis, check out the graphs below which include all residential property types and locations in the Sun Valley MLS. 

• Across all property types (single-family, condos, townhouses and vacant land), inventory was down in the Sun Valley MLS Year-to-Date September 30, 2021 by 31% over the same period last year. The biggest culprits were townhouses, which had 53% less inventory; vacant residential land, which had 37% less inventory; and single-family homes, which had 30% less inventory in the first nine months of 2021 over the same period of 2020. Ouch!
• No wonder many properties are receiving multiple offers with most offers at or over asking price! In fact, condos sold at 101% of asking
  price in the first nine months of 2021, with Ketchum and Warm Springs leading the charge at 102%. Single-family homes across all areas in the Sun Valley MLS sold at exactly 100% of asking price, with Warm Springs pulling the average up by selling at 107% of asking price; and Sun Valley selling at 103% of asking. Townhouses sold at 101% of asking price, with Sun Valley townhouses selling at 104% of asking. For the time being, those looking for a deal may want to seriously consider their strategy! See my Blog: How to Be a Successful Buyer in a Seller's Market - https://www.sunvalleysheila.com/2021/07/04/price-range-statistics-in-the-sun-valley-mls-how-to-be-a-successful-buyer-in-a-sellers-market/?source=2
• The number of under contract single-family homes in the Sun Valley MLS as of September 30, 2021 was up 7% over September 30, 2020; with the mid-valley (those areas south of Ketchum) up 50%; and Bellevue up 67%.
• Pending deals for condos are the exact same YTD as last year; and townhouses are down 38%. Does this illustrate a softening market or a lack of inventory so buyers are sitting on the sidelines until their dream home is listed? Pending deals for vacant residential land was up 7%, which is quite a decline from the first six months when pending deals were up 145%.  
• Of course, all this demand is great for sellers as the simple law of supply and demand increases prices. The median price of a single-family home rose 12% in the first nine months of 2021compared to the same period in 2020. This actually represents a slowing of price increases as the median price as of June 30, 2021 rose 22% over the same period of 2020; and up 25% YTD March 31, 2021 over YTD 2020. The average price as of September 30, 2021 over September 30, 2020 was up 14%; again, this represents a slowing as that number was 39% as of June 2021.
• The median price for a condo was up 51% as of September 30, 2021, compared to 96% appreciation as of June 30, 2021 and an increase of 200% as of March 31, 2021. So while condo prices are still increasing, the rate of appreciation is slowing. 
• Townhouse prices are still soft with the median price down 18% as of September 30, 2021. One reason for this might be that inventory levels for townhouses were down 53%, so perhaps buyers are waiting on the sidelines until more townhouses come on the market? Or? 
• The median price for residential land actually declined YTD September 30, 2021 by 7% over the same period of 2020. Inventory was down 37%; and the number of vacant lots sold was up 59%. The decline in median price doesn't make sense when looking at low inventory and increased sales. Stay tuned for the end-of-year statistics, which might offer some insight. 
• ONE WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE is to look at "New Listings." New listing inventory for single-family homes was down 16%; condo listings was down 6%; townhouse new inventory was down 52%; and vacant land new listings were down 20%. 
• All real estate is local. Check out the charts below which give you the latest real estate statistics in the Sun Valley MLS by area. In other words, you can dial down on the number of active listings, new listings, sold and pending listings, median and average sale price, and percentage of list price by area, from Elkhorn to Ketchum; from Sun Valley to Warm Springs. I’ve even included statistics for Hailey, south of Ketchum, southern Blaine County, the Salmon River area, and the glorious Sawtooth Valley.